Conference Realignment: This Is the Way (2024)

07-30-2023, 06:07 PM

We are witnessing the destruction of the PAC 12, at as we have known the conference for decades. USC and UCLA announced they are leaving the conference last year for the B1G and Colorado announced late last week that they are leaving for the Big 12. Arizona could make a similar announcement any time now. The other two 4-corner schools, Arizona State and Utah may also follow suit. The B1G could be about to take Oregon and Washington, and maybe Stanford and California.

It is truly dire straights for the PAC 12, but they are not the only P5 conference that is troubled waters. The ACC frigate is taking on water and is starting to list heavily to such an extent it is only a matter of time before it capsizes.

In the near future it is likely that the ACC will be divided into two uneven halves, and ESPN will park each half in a different conference in order for ESPN to make the most money it can. All 15 ACC schools will agree to this division as it provides the best immediate and long-term financial and conference security for all, and most of the most cherished rivalries will be preserved. FOX will be a happy partner and will also benefit handsomely. One half will go to the SEC and the other half will go to the Big 12. The B1G will most likely not get any ACC schools.

Which schools go to the SEC? Eight schools will join the SEC: FSU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, the Magnificent Seven, plus one more ACC school, possibly Notre Dame, but most likely it will be Georgia Tech for reasons discussed below.

Where will the other seven ACC schools go? Six schools will join the Big12: Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest and probably Duke, but possibly Georgia Tech, or even both to make it seven teams, depending on what Notre Dame decides. Notre Dame probably remains football independent initially and parks its other sports either in the Big East, or more likely in the Big12 with a football scheduling arrangement similar to its deal with the ACC

Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference. For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Could an agreement be made where some ACC schools could be allowed to join the B1G in exchange for a share of the B1G ‘s current or next media deal? Possibly, but unlikely. ESPN did not purchase a slice of the B1G’s media rights pie when the B1G was offering content during its last media rights negotiations, and I believe the same factors that prevented ESPN from matching the other network’s bids for B1G content would also prevent ESPN from trading ACC content for B1G content.

The number of years being offered by the B1G were too short for ESPN’s liking. Having 12 years of ACC content just does not mesh with 4 year deals. The Mouse also does not prefer sharing top shelf media rights content with other media entities (apologies to the Big 12). Additionally, there is a little friction between ESPN and the B1G that goes back to the days when the B1G went out on their own to form its lucrative Big Ten network.

While all of these reasons may shape what ESPN will want to do, the primary motivating factors are 1) How can ESPN can make the most money? and 2) How can ESPN preserve its monopoly on all of best college football schools in the Southeast long-term.

While football drives the bus, and such will be discussed further below, basketball is a huge value enhancer here. By placing Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest and Boston College into the Big 12, ESPN will add elite basketball to what is already the best basketball conference. The Big 12 will also likely be acquiring Arizona and UCONN. By adding these eight schools to the Big 12, the basketball value of such a conference would be beyond anything ever considered by any previous media evaluation.

ESPN’s current financial investment in these six ACC schools will also be shared by FOX. If we use a rounded up number of $40 million for how much ESPN currently pays for each ACC school’s media rights to simply the math, that is $120 million a year coming off ESPN’S books. That is not an insignificant sum and factors in to the increase ESPN will be paying the SEC.

Better yet for ESPN, it gets more basketball content stretched over a much larger area of the country, even considering that it would be sharing half of the Big 12's content with FOX, because of the sheer volume of valuable basketball content in such a conference.

ESPN will also retain half of these six ACC school’s football content while continuing to pay one-half of the existing contract price, which is probably close to these schools’ actual football value.

If ESPN wants to retain its lock on these schools until 2036, all ESPN and FOX would have to do is negotiate basketball separately with the Big12, which Yormark is dying to do anyway to benefit his conference membership. This could easily be done by accounting for an agreed to percentage of ESPN’s current ACC contract as to basketball value, such as 20%, and do the math.

ESPN’s football media rights in these 6 ACC schools could also be merged with the rest of the Big 24 because the football value of the ACC 6 would likely be similar to the rest if the Big 24, or ESPN and FOX could continue paying these six ACC schools the same amount until 2036. Practicality probably leans ESPN and the ACC 6 towards the former, but the existing ACC contract value for football, after subtracting the agreed to basketball valuation, would be a floor for the ACC 6 football valuations, if such is even needed. Some estimations have the current Big 12 contract passing the current ACC media contract payouts in a few years due to the Big 12’s higher annual increases.

In essence, ESPN would be parlaying its long-term term rights to the ACC 6 for a one-half interest in a greater Big 24 basketball powerhouse and maintaining half of these six ACC’s football rights and only paying one-half for such.

Why would FOX do this? That is easy to see. Cost efficient acquisitions of basketball and football content. A no brainer. Owning one-half of a Big 24 would be a wise investment and would provide abundant basketball and football content for FOX.

Why would the Big 12 want to do this? The answers are obvious. Yormark wants to maximize his conference’s basketball brand and provide long-term stability to the Big 12. Adding Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and Wake Forest provides 5 valuable basketball properties, three of which are elite, plus the Boston market. UCONN and Arizona will almost certainly be invited as well to obtain two more basketball bluebloods.

With the northeastern basketball powers UCONN and Syracuse, along with Kansas, Duke, Arizona and the rest of the conference’s excellent basketball schools, the Big 12 could also schedule long-term inter-conference games or tournaments with the Big East Conference to maximize the Big 12’s value in the lucrative, but still undervalued, northeastern basketball markets.

Most importantly for the Big 12 schools, including all of the new member schools, they would have the security of not being left behind by a Power 2 breakaway. It would be very unlikely for the SEC and the B1G to be able to breakaway when more than half of the best basketball schools are in the Big 12, especially if the Big 12 develops contractual ties to the Big East Conference to further leverage that strength. As long as the Big 12’s football schools remain competitive on the gridiron, the Big 12’s basketball power will help keep the Big 24 in the Power club. Additional discussions as to why the ACC 6 would want to join the Big 12 follows below.

Why would the SEC do this? Money, more specifically, playoff money. A SEC 24 with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson and 13 other SEC schools likely gets five teams in a 12 team playoff. That would be a lot of money. Additionally, the SEC has a pro rata clause with ESPN that allows them to add P5 schools and have them get an equal share. Because both the SEC and ACC schools are ESPN properties these acquisitions would be seamless as long as the rest of the ACC is taken care of as well.

Of course if the SEC membership included every school that has won a college football national championship in the last generation, other than Ohio State and USC, such accumulation of elite college football powers markets itself. There would not be any way a SEC 24 would not clearly become the most valuable and powerful conference for the foreseeable future. A SEC 24 could provide 3 top tier conference matchups every week and ESPN has the ability to broadcast all of the SEC 24’s games across its many channels.

An interesting question will be which conference gets the ACC Network. If the network goes with the 6 ACC schools to the Big 12 you would be putting conference games on a network where FOX would own half of the conference schools’ media rights, while the network would be solely owned by ESPN and presumably the Big 12’ member schools. If the network goes with the schoold going to the SEC, ESPN would not have that issue.

Why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to go to the SEC: No real discussion needs to be made as to why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to join the SEC. Their choice is to either stay in a dying conference or join the SEC and make tens of millions more. It is a no brainer.

Why the ACC 6 schools let the Magnificent Seven +1 go to the greener grasses of the SEC without them: There would certainly be significant reticence by the AAC 6 in their giving up the remaining 12 years of the ACC’s GORs term with their current ACC brothers. Duke and the other five ACC schools would certainly prefer to continue to be in the same conference as North Carolina and the other seven ACC schools, no question about it, but every ACC school sees what is happening to the PAC 12.

Watching the PAC 12 fall apart has to make the impending ACC 2036 disintegration more real and threatening. For these schools future security must be obtained at all costs. If that can be obtained without loosing money, and perhaps maybe make a little more, while having the chance to maintain and even elevate their basketball brands, which is the sport of strength and national identity for most of these schools, such choice must be made.

Furthermore, the Big 24 would be a really nice neighborhood for the ACC 6. A northeastern grouping of Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Louisville, Duke and Wake Forest, with West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCONN, and you have something special and valuable. Throw in the rich recruiting grounds and media markets around UCF (and possibly later USF) and that is some good gravy. When you include the rest of the Big 12 basketball powers like Kansas, Arizona (probably), Baylor, etc., plus a likely long-term agreement with the Big East Conference based on Yormark’s desire to further monetize basketball, especially in the northeast, objectively this could be the best thing for the ACC 6 basketball programs and their athletic departments generally.

As to the ACC 6 to Big 24 football programs, if North Carolina and Virginia schools are still able to continue to play each other, are the ACC 6 in the Big 24 really that much worse off not getting to play FSU, Miami and Clemson? Not when you consider the reality that they are presently trapped inside a sinking ship and this could be the only chance at getting inside a life boat. Continuing to play the rest of the current ACC schools for 12 more short years, and then falling into a deep oceanic abyss, cannot be better than joining a conference comprised of similar sized schools where you would likely be more competitive in football and possibly an easier path to make the playoff.

Notwithstanding all the above, the ACC likely has no choice because the ACC Magnificent Seven +1 could vote to dissolve the conference, and then not every ACC school finds a home, which likely will be the unfortunate fate of a couple of PAC 12 schools. No school wants that. Not now or in the future.

As to which school would get the 8th golden ticket to the SEC, the Irish would be a long shot, but the spot will be offered just in case they want to take it. You have to try if you are the SEC even if the chance is remote.

However, Georgia Tech probably gets the 8th spot because of the value of their football, due to their history playing current SEC schools and their being located in Atlanta. The SEC cannot let the B1G into Atlanta. So despite the last 30 years of football under-achievement, and serious issues with their fan interest, the Yellow Jackets get the 8th golden ticket. Benchmarks must be set but Georgia Tech is the smartest choice for the SEC

Because football drives the bus, Duke probably does not get a SEC invite despite their enormous basketball brand, rivalry with the Tar Heels and the rest of the Magnificent Seven and their elite academics. Duke football just is not top tier and Georgia Tech’s football ceiling is much higher as to potential competitiveness and football market value.

Because ESPN owns Duke’s media rights they will join the rest of the ACC 6 schools in their new conference home, the Big 24. For reasons discussed above, these six schools will be in a very nice conference that provides long-term financial security, new rivalries and elite basketball competition.

As touched on above, ESPN could also broker the continuation of certain important historically rivals, such as Duke and Wake Forest continuing to play UNC, NCST and Virginia. The same could be done with the Big 12 Texas schools and some of the other current Big 12 schools, playing Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. Ditto for Kentucky and Louisville.

As for Notre Dame, they will have the opportunity to remain independent in football and will either park its other sports in the Big East or the Big 24, or Notre Dame could decide to join the B1G or the SEC 24. I do not see the splitting of ACC into two being a primary reason Notre Dame relinquishing independence.

However, I do believe Notre Dame’s days of football independence are numbered because of the College Football Playoff, not because of a lack of access to it, but because of such access. It is only a matter of time, whether sooner or later, that Notre Dame’s financial advantage becomes apparent if the Irish makes the playoffs several years in a row and pockets all that playoff money without having to share with a conference. Such would likely be much larger than any other school’s net share because of conference affiliations. While the potential dollars the Irish could earn in the playoffs could be restricted, such discussions would likely cause Notre Dame to concede football independence, very reluctantly, and they will probably join the B1G.

What would the B1G do if the SEC and the Big 12 both go to 24 schools? They would react. Oregon and Washington would be the easiest choices, and they may be taken within days, long before the ACC is split in half. They could then stop at 18 until the next media rights cycle. They could also go to 20 with Stanford and California, but these two schools have to get on board with being in it to win it. More emphasis needs to be put into building a culture of sports competitiveness in football and basketball, as well as cultivating an enhanced fan support base for these sports, at Stanford and especially at California. The B1G should create benchmarks for school support for California and Stanford football and basketball before granting an invite. Such would be wise in my opinion.

After adding Oregon and Washington, and maybe California and Stanford, the B1G likely holds at 20 for awhile, and when they are ready they could take any four schools from the Big 24 they would want. Or the B1G could grab up to eight schools right now if they are be so inclined, including taking Colorado before they can unpack their bags from their move to the Big 12. The point is they can grab any PAC 12 or Big 12 school they want, now or later.

The problem the B1G has, other than being shut out of the market for ACC schools for about a decade, is their financial success. The B1G media rights contracts supposedly do not include a pro rate clause like the SEC and Big 12, and there are not any schools out there that raises the per school average that the current B1G members makes from it current media rights deals. Maybe Oregon and Washington brings in a little extra value, but no other schools move the needle financially.

No other school except Notre Dame that is. If the B1G gets the Irish, then Oregon, Washington, and Stanford makes sense, and if the B1G wanted to match the SEC at 24, California plus three other schools could even happen. Whether these schools come from solely the PAC or also from the Big 24 does not really matter, either now or later.

If the B1G were to ever raid the Big 24, it would just reload again, and I predict such additions would be San Diego (rich recruiting grounds, market and basketball), Memphis (proximity, fertile recruiting grounds and basketball) and South Florida (rich recruiting grounds, travel partner for UCF and great academics). If a fourth school is needed it probably would be Fresno State (recruiting grounds, another California market and a decent fan base).

We are living in interesting times.

Lurker Above

07-30-2023, 06:20 PM

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

07-30-2023, 06:57 PM

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]We are witnessing the destruction of the PAC 12, at as we have known the conference for decades. USC and UCLA announced they are leaving the conference last year for the B1G and Colorado announced late last week that they are leaving for the Big 12. Arizona could make a similar announcement any time now. The other two 4-corner schools, Arizona State and Utah may also follow suit. The B1G could be about to take Oregon and Washington, and maybe Stanford and California. It is truly dire straights for the PAC 12, but they are not the only P5 conference that is troubled waters. The ACC frigate is taking on water and is starting to list heavily to such an extent it is only a matter of time before it capsizes.

In the near future it is likely that the ACC will be divided into two uneven halves, and ESPN will park each half in a different conference in order for ESPN to make the most money it can. All 15 ACC schools will agree to this division as it provides the best immediate and long-term financial and conference security for all, and most of the most cherished rivalries will be preserved. FOX will be a happy partner and will also benefit handsomely. One half will go to the SEC and the other half will go to the Big 12. The B1G will most likely not get any ACC schools.
Which schools go to the SEC? Eight schools will join the SEC: FSU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, the Magnificent Seven, plus one more ACC school, possibly Notre Dame, but most likely it will be Georgia Tech for reasons discussed below.

Where will the other seven ACC schools go? Six schools will join the Big12: Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest and probably Duke, but possibly Georgia Tech, or even both to make it seven teams, depending on what Notre Dame decides. Notre Dame probably remains football independent initially and parks its other sports either in the Big East, or more likely in the Big12 with a football scheduling arrangement similar to its deal with the ACC

Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Could an agreement be made where some ACC schools could be allowed to join the B1G in exchange for a share of the B1G ‘s current or next media deal? Possibly, but unlikely. ESPN did not purchase a slice of the B1G’s media rights pie when the B1G was offering content during its last media rights negotiations, and I believe the same factors that prevented ESPN from matching the other network’s bids for B1G content would also prevent ESPN from trading ACC content for B1G content. The number of years being offered by the B1G were too short for ESPN’s liking. Having 12 years of ACC content just does not mesh with 4 year deals. The Mouse also does not prefer sharing top shelf media rights content with other media entities (apologies to the Big 12). Additionally, there is a little friction between ESPN and the B1G that goes back to the days when the B1G went out on their own to form its lucrative Big Ten network.

While all of these reasons may shape what ESPN will want to do, the primary motivating factors are 1) How can ESPN can make the most money? and 2) How can ESPN preserve its monopoly on all of best college football schools in the Southeast long-term.

While football drives the bus, and such will be discussed further below, basketball is a huge value enhancer here. By placing Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest and Boston College into the Big 12, ESPN will add elite basketball to what is already the best basketball conference. The Big 12 will also likely be acquiring Arizona and UCONN. By adding these eight schools to the Big 12, the basketball value of such a conference would be beyond anything ever considered by any previous media evaluation.

ESPN’s current financial investment in these six ACC schools will also be shared by FOX. If we use a rounded up number of $40 million for how much ESPN currently pays for each ACC school’s media rights to simply the math, that is $120 million a year coming off ESPN’S books. That is not an insignificant sum and factors in to the increase ESPN will be paying the SEC.
Better yet for ESPN, it gets more basketball content stretched over a much larger area of the country, even considering that it would be sharing half of the Big 12's content with FOX, because of the sheer volume of valuable basketball content in such a conference.
ESPN will also retain half of these six ACC school’s football content while continuing to pay one-half of the existing contract price, which is probably close to these schools’ actual football value.

If ESPN wants to retain its lock on these schools until 2036, all ESPN and FOX would have to do is negotiate basketball separately with the Big12, which Yormark is dying to do anyway to benefit his conference membership. This could easily be done by accounting for an agreed to percentage of ESPN’s current ACC contract as to basketball value, such as 20%, and do the math.

ESPN’s football media rights in these 6 ACC schools could also be merged with the rest of the Big 24 because the football value of the ACC 6 would likely be similar to the rest if the Big 24, or ESPN and FOX could continue paying these six ACC schools the same amount until 2036. Practicality probably leans ESPN and the ACC 6 towards the former, but the existing ACC contract value for football, after subtracting the agreed to basketball valuation, would be a floor for the ACC 6 football valuations, if such is even needed. Some estimations have the current Big 12 contract passing the current ACC media contract payouts in a few years due to the Big 12’s higher annual increases.

In essence, ESPN would be parlaying its long-term term rights to the ACC 6 for a one-half interest in a greater Big 24 basketball powerhouse and maintaining half of these six ACC’s football rights and only paying one-half for such.

Why would FOX do this? That is easy to see. Cost efficient acquisitions of basketball and football content. A no brainer. Owning one-half of a Big 24 would be a wise investment and would provide abundant basketball and football content for FOX.

Why would the Big 12 want to do this? The answers are obvious. Yormark wants to maximize his conference’s basketball brand and provide long-term stability to the Big 12. Adding Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and Wake Forest provides 5 valuable basketball properties, three of which are elite, plus the Boston market. UCONN and Arizona will almost certainly be invited as well to obtain two more basketball bluebloods.

With the northeastern basketball powers UCONN and Syracuse, along with Kansas, Duke, Arizona and the rest of the conference’s excellent basketball schools, the Big 12 could also schedule long-term inter-conference games or tournaments with the Big East Conference to maximize the Big 12’s value in the lucrative, but still undervalued, northeastern basketball markets.

Most importantly for the Big 12 schools, including all of the new member schools, they would have the security of not being left behind by a Power 2 breakaway. It would be very unlikely for the SEC and the B1G to be able to breakaway when more than half of the best basketball schools are in the Big 12, especially if the Big 12 develops contractual ties to the Big East Conference to further leverage that strength. As long as the Big 12’s football schools remain competitive on the gridiron, the Big 12’s basketball power will help keep the Big 24 in the Power club. Additional discussions as to why the ACC 6 would want to join the Big 12 follows below.

Why would the SEC do this? Money, more specifically, playoff money. A SEC 24 with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson and 13 other SEC schools likely gets five teams in a 12 team playoff. That would be a lot of money. Additionally, the SEC has a pro rata clause with ESPN that allows them to add P5 schools and have them get an equal share. Because both the SEC and ACC schools are ESPN properties these acquisitions would be seamless as long as the rest of the ACC is taken care of as well.

Of course if the SEC membership included every school that has won a college football national championship in the last generation, other than Ohio State and USC, such accumulation of elite college football powers markets itself. There would not be any way a SEC 24 would not clearly become the most valuable and powerful conference for the foreseeable future. A SEC 24 could provide 3 top tier conference matchups every week and ESPN has the ability to broadcast all of the SEC 24’s games across its many channels.

See Also

Pac-12 expansion, realignment speculation: Media rights situation bleak for conference?Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"Big Ten expansion, realignment speculation surrounds Pac-12 Conference, Oregon, Washington

An interesting question will be which conference gets the ACC Network. If the network goes with the 6 ACC schools to the Big 12 you would be putting conference games on a network where FOX would own half of the conference schools’ media rights, while the network would be solely owned by ESPN and presumably the Big 12’ member schools. If the network goes with the schoold going to the SEC, ESPN would not have that issue.

Why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to go to the SEC: No real discussion needs to be made as to why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to join the SEC. Their choice is to either stay in a dying conference or join the SEC and make tens of millions more. It is a no brainer.

Why the ACC 6 schools let the Magnificent Seven +1 go to the greener grasses of the SEC without them: There would certainly be significant reticence by the AAC 6 in their giving up the remaining 12 years of the ACC’s GORs term with their current ACC brothers. Duke and the other five ACC schools would certainly prefer to continue to be in the same conference as North Carolina and the other seven ACC schools; no question about it, but every ACC school sees what is happening to the PAC 12. Watching the PAC 12 fall apart has to make the impending ACC 2036 disintegration more real and threatening. For these schools future security must be obtained at all costs. If that can be obtained without loosing money, and perhaps maybe make a little more, while having the chance to maintain and even elevate their basketball brands, which is the sport of strength and national identity for most of these schools, such choice must be made.

Furthermore, the Big 24 would be a really nice neighborhood for the ACC 6. A northeastern grouping of Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Louisville, Duke and Wake Forest, with West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCONN, and you have something special and valuable. Throw in the rich recruiting grounds and media markets around UCF (and possibly later USF) and that is some good gravy. When you include the rest of the Big 12 basketball powers like Kansas, Arizona (probably), Baylor, etc., plus a likely long-term agreement with the Big East Conference based on Yormark’s desire to further monetize basketball, especially in the northeast, objectively this could be the best thing for the ACC 6 basketball programs and their athletic departments generally.

As to the ACC 6 to Big 24 football programs, if North Carolina and Virginia schools are still able to continue to play each other, are the ACC 6 in the Big 24 really that much worse off not getting to play FSU, Miami and Clemson? Not when you consider the reality that they are presently trapped inside a sinking ship and this could be the only chance at getting inside a life boat. Continuing to play the rest of the current ACC schools for 12 more short years, and then falling into a deep oceanic abyss, cannot be better than joining a conference comprised of similar sized schools where you would likely be more competitive in football and possibly an easier path to make the playoff.

Notwithstanding all the above, the ACC likely has no choice because the ACC Magnificent Seven +1 could vote to dissolve the conference, and then not every ACC school finds a home, which likely will be the unfortunate fate of a couple of PAC 12 schools. No school wants that. Not now or in the future.

As to which school would get the 8th golden ticket to the SEC, the Irish would be a long shot, but the spot will be offered just in case they want to take it. You have to try if you are the SEC even if the chance is remote. However, Georgia Tech probably gets the 8th spot because of the value of their football, due to their history playing current SEC schools and their being located in Atlanta. The SEC cannot let the B1G into Atlanta. So despite the last 30 years of football under-achievement, and serious issues with their fan interest, the Yellow Jackets get the 8th golden ticket. Benchmarks must be set but Georgia Tech is the smartest choice for the SEC

Because football drives the bus, Duke probably does not get a SEC invite despite their enormous basketball brand, rivalry with the Tar Heels and the rest of the Magnificent Seven and their elite academics. Duke football just is not top tier and Georgia Tech’s football ceiling is much higher as to potential competitiveness and football market value.

Because ESPN owns Duke’s media rights they will join the rest of the ACC 6 schools in their new conference home, the Big 24. For reasons discussed above, these six schools will be in a very nice conference that provides long-term financial security, new rivalries and elite basketball competition.

As touched on above, ESPN could also broker the continuation of certain important historically rivals, such as Duke and Wake Forest continuing to play UNC, NCST and Virginia. The same could be done with the Big 12 Texas schools and some of the other current Big 12 schools, playing Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. Ditto for Kentucky and Louisville.

As for Notre Dame, they will have the opportunity to remain independent in football and will either park its other sports in the Big East or the Big 24, or Notre Dame could decide to join the B1G or the SEC 24. I do not see the splitting of ACC into two being a primary reason Notre Dame relinquishing independence.

However, I do believe Notre Dame’s days of football independence are numbered because of the College Football Playoff, not because of a lack of access to it, but because of such access. It is only a matter of time, whether sooner or later, that Notre Dame’s financial advantage becomes apparent if the Irish makes the playoffs several years in a row and pockets all that playoff money without having to share with a conference. Such would likely be much larger than any other school’s net share because of conference affiliations. While the potential dollars the Irish could earn in the playoffs could be restricted, such discussions would likely cause Notre Dame to concede football independence, very reluctantly, and they will probably join the B1G.

What would the B1G do if the SEC and the Big 12 both go to 24 schools? They would react. Oregon and Washington would be the easiest choices, and they may be taken within days, long before the ACC is split in half. They could then stop at 18 until the next media rights cycle. They could also go to 20 with Stanford and California, but these two schools have to get on board with being in it to win it. More emphasis needs to be put into building a culture of sports competitiveness in football and basketball, as well as cultivating an enhanced fan support base for these sports, at Stanford and especially at California. The B1G should create benchmarks for school support for California and Stanford football and basketball before granting an invite. Such would be wise in my opinion.

After adding Oregon and Washington, and maybe California and Stanford, the B1G likely holds at 20 for awhile, and when they are ready they could take any four schools from the Big 24 they would want. Or the B1G could grab up to eight schools right now if they are be so inclined, including taking Colorado before they can unpack their bags from their move to the Big 12. The point is they can grab any PAC 12 or Big 12 school they want, now or later.

The problem the B1G has, other than being shut out of the market for ACC schools for about a decade, is their financial success. The B1G media rights contracts supposedly do not include a pro rate clause like the SEC and Big 12, and there are not any schools out there that raises the per school average that the current B1G members makes from it current media rights deals. Maybe Oregon and Washington brings in a little extra value, but no other schools move the needle financially. No other school except Notre Dame that is. If the B1G gets the Irish, then Oregon, Washington, and Stanford makes sense, and if the B1G wanted to match the SEC at 24, California plus three other schools could even happen. Whether these schools come from solely the PAC or also from the Big 24 does not really matter, either now or later.

If the B1G were to ever raid the Big 24, it would just reload again, and I predict such additions would be San Diego (rich recruiting grounds, market and basketball), Memphis (proximity, fertile recruiting grounds and basketball) and South Florida (rich recruiting grounds, travel partner for UCF and great academics). If a fourth school is needed it probably would be Fresno State (recruiting grounds, another California market and a decent fan base).

We are living in interesting times.

Lurker Above

Lurker, ESPN owns the T3 rights in the Big 12 so if they wanted to establish the network, they would have standardized facilities with the LHN and ACCN with which to do it and FOX is not a complication.

Also, ESPN doesn't split the cost of the Big 12 evenly with FOX. FOX has more basketball rights and ESPN more football rights and I'm not sure what the split is on those, but the ratio would be around 19 million from ESPN and 12 million from FOX plus or minus a million either way.

The rough cost to ESPN for the promotion of the 8 would be 35 million per school or, 280 million more than ESPN is paying now, so less what would be adjusted amount on the other 6 which would be about 72 million less (figuring FOX is picking up the 12 million on each) that would still be 208 million to make the move.

I've wondered at what point the SEC and Big 10 would consider "All but Football" memberships so they could accommodate a school like Duke, and possibly help a school like Vanderbilt should they find the cost of football too much and the space it occupies too valuable.

Interesting take.

07-30-2023, 07:19 PM

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated in my post, ESPN would pay it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

07-30-2023, 07:34 PM

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

07-30-2023, 07:44 PM

(07-30-2023 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

You really do not think ESPN would earn significantly more that $200 million more per year if they were to add the Magnificent Seven plus one other ACC school? Seriously?

08-02-2023, 09:09 AM

08-02-2023, 09:17 AM

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]We are witnessing the destruction of the PAC 12, at as we have known the conference for decades. USC and UCLA announced they are leaving the conference last year for the B1G and Colorado announced late last week that they are leaving for the Big 12. Arizona could make a similar announcement any time now. The other two 4-corner schools, Arizona State and Utah may also follow suit. The B1G could be about to take Oregon and Washington, and maybe Stanford and California.

It is truly dire straights for the PAC 12, but they are not the only P5 conference that is troubled waters. The ACC frigate is taking on water and is starting to list heavily to such an extent it is only a matter of time before it capsizes.

In the near future it is likely that the ACC will be divided into two uneven halves, and ESPN will park each half in a different conference in order for ESPN to make the most money it can. All 15 ACC schools will agree to this division as it provides the best immediate and long-term financial and conference security for all, and most of the most cherished rivalries will be preserved. FOX will be a happy partner and will also benefit handsomely. One half will go to the SEC and the other half will go to the Big 12. The B1G will most likely not get any ACC schools.

Which schools go to the SEC? Eight schools will join the SEC: FSU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, the Magnificent Seven, plus one more ACC school, possibly Notre Dame, but most likely it will be Georgia Tech for reasons discussed below.

Where will the other seven ACC schools go? Six schools will join the Big12: Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest and probably Duke, but possibly Georgia Tech, or even both to make it seven teams, depending on what Notre Dame decides. Notre Dame probably remains football independent initially and parks its other sports either in the Big East, or more likely in the Big12 with a football scheduling arrangement similar to its deal with the ACC

Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference. For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Could an agreement be made where some ACC schools could be allowed to join the B1G in exchange for a share of the B1G ‘s current or next media deal? Possibly, but unlikely. ESPN did not purchase a slice of the B1G’s media rights pie when the B1G was offering content during its last media rights negotiations, and I believe the same factors that prevented ESPN from matching the other network’s bids for B1G content would also prevent ESPN from trading ACC content for B1G content.

The number of years being offered by the B1G were too short for ESPN’s liking. Having 12 years of ACC content just does not mesh with 4 year deals. The Mouse also does not prefer sharing top shelf media rights content with other media entities (apologies to the Big 12). Additionally, there is a little friction between ESPN and the B1G that goes back to the days when the B1G went out on their own to form its lucrative Big Ten network.

While all of these reasons may shape what ESPN will want to do, the primary motivating factors are 1) How can ESPN can make the most money? and 2) How can ESPN preserve its monopoly on all of best college football schools in the Southeast long-term.

While football drives the bus, and such will be discussed further below, basketball is a huge value enhancer here. By placing Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest and Boston College into the Big 12, ESPN will add elite basketball to what is already the best basketball conference. The Big 12 will also likely be acquiring Arizona and UCONN. By adding these eight schools to the Big 12, the basketball value of such a conference would be beyond anything ever considered by any previous media evaluation.

ESPN’s current financial investment in these six ACC schools will also be shared by FOX. If we use a rounded up number of $40 million for how much ESPN currently pays for each ACC school’s media rights to simply the math, that is $120 million a year coming off ESPN’S books. That is not an insignificant sum and factors in to the increase ESPN will be paying the SEC.

Better yet for ESPN, it gets more basketball content stretched over a much larger area of the country, even considering that it would be sharing half of the Big 12's content with FOX, because of the sheer volume of valuable basketball content in such a conference.

ESPN will also retain half of these six ACC school’s football content while continuing to pay one-half of the existing contract price, which is probably close to these schools’ actual football value.

If ESPN wants to retain its lock on these schools until 2036, all ESPN and FOX would have to do is negotiate basketball separately with the Big12, which Yormark is dying to do anyway to benefit his conference membership. This could easily be done by accounting for an agreed to percentage of ESPN’s current ACC contract as to basketball value, such as 20%, and do the math.

ESPN’s football media rights in these 6 ACC schools could also be merged with the rest of the Big 24 because the football value of the ACC 6 would likely be similar to the rest if the Big 24, or ESPN and FOX could continue paying these six ACC schools the same amount until 2036. Practicality probably leans ESPN and the ACC 6 towards the former, but the existing ACC contract value for football, after subtracting the agreed to basketball valuation, would be a floor for the ACC 6 football valuations, if such is even needed. Some estimations have the current Big 12 contract passing the current ACC media contract payouts in a few years due to the Big 12’s higher annual increases.

In essence, ESPN would be parlaying its long-term term rights to the ACC 6 for a one-half interest in a greater Big 24 basketball powerhouse and maintaining half of these six ACC’s football rights and only paying one-half for such.

Why would FOX do this? That is easy to see. Cost efficient acquisitions of basketball and football content. A no brainer. Owning one-half of a Big 24 would be a wise investment and would provide abundant basketball and football content for FOX.

Why would the Big 12 want to do this? The answers are obvious. Yormark wants to maximize his conference’s basketball brand and provide long-term stability to the Big 12. Adding Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and Wake Forest provides 5 valuable basketball properties, three of which are elite, plus the Boston market. UCONN and Arizona will almost certainly be invited as well to obtain two more basketball bluebloods.

With the northeastern basketball powers UCONN and Syracuse, along with Kansas, Duke, Arizona and the rest of the conference’s excellent basketball schools, the Big 12 could also schedule long-term inter-conference games or tournaments with the Big East Conference to maximize the Big 12’s value in the lucrative, but still undervalued, northeastern basketball markets.

Most importantly for the Big 12 schools, including all of the new member schools, they would have the security of not being left behind by a Power 2 breakaway. It would be very unlikely for the SEC and the B1G to be able to breakaway when more than half of the best basketball schools are in the Big 12, especially if the Big 12 develops contractual ties to the Big East Conference to further leverage that strength. As long as the Big 12’s football schools remain competitive on the gridiron, the Big 12’s basketball power will help keep the Big 24 in the Power club. Additional discussions as to why the ACC 6 would want to join the Big 12 follows below.

Why would the SEC do this? Money, more specifically, playoff money. A SEC 24 with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson and 13 other SEC schools likely gets five teams in a 12 team playoff. That would be a lot of money. Additionally, the SEC has a pro rata clause with ESPN that allows them to add P5 schools and have them get an equal share. Because both the SEC and ACC schools are ESPN properties these acquisitions would be seamless as long as the rest of the ACC is taken care of as well.

See Also

Realignment speculation

Of course if the SEC membership included every school that has won a college football national championship in the last generation, other than Ohio State and USC, such accumulation of elite college football powers markets itself. There would not be any way a SEC 24 would not clearly become the most valuable and powerful conference for the foreseeable future. A SEC 24 could provide 3 top tier conference matchups every week and ESPN has the ability to broadcast all of the SEC 24’s games across its many channels.

An interesting question will be which conference gets the ACC Network. If the network goes with the 6 ACC schools to the Big 12 you would be putting conference games on a network where FOX would own half of the conference schools’ media rights, while the network would be solely owned by ESPN and presumably the Big 12’ member schools. If the network goes with the schoold going to the SEC, ESPN would not have that issue.

Why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to go to the SEC: No real discussion needs to be made as to why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to join the SEC. Their choice is to either stay in a dying conference or join the SEC and make tens of millions more. It is a no brainer.

Why the ACC 6 schools let the Magnificent Seven +1 go to the greener grasses of the SEC without them: There would certainly be significant reticence by the AAC 6 in their giving up the remaining 12 years of the ACC’s GORs term with their current ACC brothers. Duke and the other five ACC schools would certainly prefer to continue to be in the same conference as North Carolina and the other seven ACC schools, no question about it, but every ACC school sees what is happening to the PAC 12.

Watching the PAC 12 fall apart has to make the impending ACC 2036 disintegration more real and threatening. For these schools future security must be obtained at all costs. If that can be obtained without loosing money, and perhaps maybe make a little more, while having the chance to maintain and even elevate their basketball brands, which is the sport of strength and national identity for most of these schools, such choice must be made.

Furthermore, the Big 24 would be a really nice neighborhood for the ACC 6. A northeastern grouping of Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Louisville, Duke and Wake Forest, with West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCONN, and you have something special and valuable. Throw in the rich recruiting grounds and media markets around UCF (and possibly later USF) and that is some good gravy. When you include the rest of the Big 12 basketball powers like Kansas, Arizona (probably), Baylor, etc., plus a likely long-term agreement with the Big East Conference based on Yormark’s desire to further monetize basketball, especially in the northeast, objectively this could be the best thing for the ACC 6 basketball programs and their athletic departments generally.

As to the ACC 6 to Big 24 football programs, if North Carolina and Virginia schools are still able to continue to play each other, are the ACC 6 in the Big 24 really that much worse off not getting to play FSU, Miami and Clemson? Not when you consider the reality that they are presently trapped inside a sinking ship and this could be the only chance at getting inside a life boat. Continuing to play the rest of the current ACC schools for 12 more short years, and then falling into a deep oceanic abyss, cannot be better than joining a conference comprised of similar sized schools where you would likely be more competitive in football and possibly an easier path to make the playoff.

Notwithstanding all the above, the ACC likely has no choice because the ACC Magnificent Seven +1 could vote to dissolve the conference, and then not every ACC school finds a home, which likely will be the unfortunate fate of a couple of PAC 12 schools. No school wants that. Not now or in the future.

As to which school would get the 8th golden ticket to the SEC, the Irish would be a long shot, but the spot will be offered just in case they want to take it. You have to try if you are the SEC even if the chance is remote.

However, Georgia Tech probably gets the 8th spot because of the value of their football, due to their history playing current SEC schools and their being located in Atlanta. The SEC cannot let the B1G into Atlanta. So despite the last 30 years of football under-achievement, and serious issues with their fan interest, the Yellow Jackets get the 8th golden ticket. Benchmarks must be set but Georgia Tech is the smartest choice for the SEC

Because football drives the bus, Duke probably does not get a SEC invite despite their enormous basketball brand, rivalry with the Tar Heels and the rest of the Magnificent Seven and their elite academics. Duke football just is not top tier and Georgia Tech’s football ceiling is much higher as to potential competitiveness and football market value.

Because ESPN owns Duke’s media rights they will join the rest of the ACC 6 schools in their new conference home, the Big 24. For reasons discussed above, these six schools will be in a very nice conference that provides long-term financial security, new rivalries and elite basketball competition.

As touched on above, ESPN could also broker the continuation of certain important historically rivals, such as Duke and Wake Forest continuing to play UNC, NCST and Virginia. The same could be done with the Big 12 Texas schools and some of the other current Big 12 schools, playing Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. Ditto for Kentucky and Louisville.

As for Notre Dame, they will have the opportunity to remain independent in football and will either park its other sports in the Big East or the Big 24, or Notre Dame could decide to join the B1G or the SEC 24. I do not see the splitting of ACC into two being a primary reason Notre Dame relinquishing independence.

However, I do believe Notre Dame’s days of football independence are numbered because of the College Football Playoff, not because of a lack of access to it, but because of such access. It is only a matter of time, whether sooner or later, that Notre Dame’s financial advantage becomes apparent if the Irish makes the playoffs several years in a row and pockets all that playoff money without having to share with a conference. Such would likely be much larger than any other school’s net share because of conference affiliations. While the potential dollars the Irish could earn in the playoffs could be restricted, such discussions would likely cause Notre Dame to concede football independence, very reluctantly, and they will probably join the B1G.

What would the B1G do if the SEC and the Big 12 both go to 24 schools? They would react. Oregon and Washington would be the easiest choices, and they may be taken within days, long before the ACC is split in half. They could then stop at 18 until the next media rights cycle. They could also go to 20 with Stanford and California, but these two schools have to get on board with being in it to win it. More emphasis needs to be put into building a culture of sports competitiveness in football and basketball, as well as cultivating an enhanced fan support base for these sports, at Stanford and especially at California. The B1G should create benchmarks for school support for California and Stanford football and basketball before granting an invite. Such would be wise in my opinion.

After adding Oregon and Washington, and maybe California and Stanford, the B1G likely holds at 20 for awhile, and when they are ready they could take any four schools from the Big 24 they would want. Or the B1G could grab up to eight schools right now if they are be so inclined, including taking Colorado before they can unpack their bags from their move to the Big 12. The point is they can grab any PAC 12 or Big 12 school they want, now or later.

The problem the B1G has, other than being shut out of the market for ACC schools for about a decade, is their financial success. The B1G media rights contracts supposedly do not include a pro rate clause like the SEC and Big 12, and there are not any schools out there that raises the per school average that the current B1G members makes from it current media rights deals. Maybe Oregon and Washington brings in a little extra value, but no other schools move the needle financially.

No other school except Notre Dame that is. If the B1G gets the Irish, then Oregon, Washington, and Stanford makes sense, and if the B1G wanted to match the SEC at 24, California plus three other schools could even happen. Whether these schools come from solely the PAC or also from the Big 24 does not really matter, either now or later.

If the B1G were to ever raid the Big 24, it would just reload again, and I predict such additions would be San Diego (rich recruiting grounds, market and basketball), Memphis (proximity, fertile recruiting grounds and basketball) and South Florida (rich recruiting grounds, travel partner for UCF and great academics). If a fourth school is needed it probably would be Fresno State (recruiting grounds, another California market and a decent fan base).

We are living in interesting times.

Lurker Above

Definitely a detailed analysis and while I agree with superconferences as the future, I have a few comments:
1) Duke will not be left behind while VT prospers. That's just not happening unless it's Dukes choice in the matter. They are going to be playing football vs Baylor instead of UNC and UVA. So either they are #8 or VT will join it's old Big East chums.
2) Assuming ND is still allowed to play games, it would just park it's other sports in Big 10 not Big 12. Big East most likely though.

08-02-2023, 09:41 AM

I don't see the upside for the SEC adding any ACC schools.

The only reason UT/Oklahoma got done so easily is because those schools are huge behemoths that are true blue blood schools. The only comparable additions would be if Ohio State/Michigan or maybe Notre Dame called up and wanted to join.

Virginia or even FSU/Clemson don't move the needle in the same way, IMO.

08-02-2023, 09:46 AM

(08-02-2023 09:17 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]We are witnessing the destruction of the PAC 12, at as we have known the conference for decades. USC and UCLA announced they are leaving the conference last year for the B1G and Colorado announced late last week that they are leaving for the Big 12. Arizona could make a similar announcement any time now. The other two 4-corner schools, Arizona State and Utah may also follow suit. The B1G could be about to take Oregon and Washington, and maybe Stanford and California.

It is truly dire straights for the PAC 12, but they are not the only P5 conference that is troubled waters. The ACC frigate is taking on water and is starting to list heavily to such an extent it is only a matter of time before it capsizes.

In the near future it is likely that the ACC will be divided into two uneven halves, and ESPN will park each half in a different conference in order for ESPN to make the most money it can. All 15 ACC schools will agree to this division as it provides the best immediate and long-term financial and conference security for all, and most of the most cherished rivalries will be preserved. FOX will be a happy partner and will also benefit handsomely. One half will go to the SEC and the other half will go to the Big 12. The B1G will most likely not get any ACC schools.

Which schools go to the SEC? Eight schools will join the SEC: FSU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, the Magnificent Seven, plus one more ACC school, possibly Notre Dame, but most likely it will be Georgia Tech for reasons discussed below.

Where will the other seven ACC schools go? Six schools will join the Big12: Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest and probably Duke, but possibly Georgia Tech, or even both to make it seven teams, depending on what Notre Dame decides. Notre Dame probably remains football independent initially and parks its other sports either in the Big East, or more likely in the Big12 with a football scheduling arrangement similar to its deal with the ACC

Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference. For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Could an agreement be made where some ACC schools could be allowed to join the B1G in exchange for a share of the B1G ‘s current or next media deal? Possibly, but unlikely. ESPN did not purchase a slice of the B1G’s media rights pie when the B1G was offering content during its last media rights negotiations, and I believe the same factors that prevented ESPN from matching the other network’s bids for B1G content would also prevent ESPN from trading ACC content for B1G content.

The number of years being offered by the B1G were too short for ESPN’s liking. Having 12 years of ACC content just does not mesh with 4 year deals. The Mouse also does not prefer sharing top shelf media rights content with other media entities (apologies to the Big 12). Additionally, there is a little friction between ESPN and the B1G that goes back to the days when the B1G went out on their own to form its lucrative Big Ten network.

While all of these reasons may shape what ESPN will want to do, the primary motivating factors are 1) How can ESPN can make the most money? and 2) How can ESPN preserve its monopoly on all of best college football schools in the Southeast long-term.

While football drives the bus, and such will be discussed further below, basketball is a huge value enhancer here. By placing Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest and Boston College into the Big 12, ESPN will add elite basketball to what is already the best basketball conference. The Big 12 will also likely be acquiring Arizona and UCONN. By adding these eight schools to the Big 12, the basketball value of such a conference would be beyond anything ever considered by any previous media evaluation.

ESPN’s current financial investment in these six ACC schools will also be shared by FOX. If we use a rounded up number of $40 million for how much ESPN currently pays for each ACC school’s media rights to simply the math, that is $120 million a year coming off ESPN’S books. That is not an insignificant sum and factors in to the increase ESPN will be paying the SEC.

Better yet for ESPN, it gets more basketball content stretched over a much larger area of the country, even considering that it would be sharing half of the Big 12's content with FOX, because of the sheer volume of valuable basketball content in such a conference.

ESPN will also retain half of these six ACC school’s football content while continuing to pay one-half of the existing contract price, which is probably close to these schools’ actual football value.

If ESPN wants to retain its lock on these schools until 2036, all ESPN and FOX would have to do is negotiate basketball separately with the Big12, which Yormark is dying to do anyway to benefit his conference membership. This could easily be done by accounting for an agreed to percentage of ESPN’s current ACC contract as to basketball value, such as 20%, and do the math.

ESPN’s football media rights in these 6 ACC schools could also be merged with the rest of the Big 24 because the football value of the ACC 6 would likely be similar to the rest if the Big 24, or ESPN and FOX could continue paying these six ACC schools the same amount until 2036. Practicality probably leans ESPN and the ACC 6 towards the former, but the existing ACC contract value for football, after subtracting the agreed to basketball valuation, would be a floor for the ACC 6 football valuations, if such is even needed. Some estimations have the current Big 12 contract passing the current ACC media contract payouts in a few years due to the Big 12’s higher annual increases.

In essence, ESPN would be parlaying its long-term term rights to the ACC 6 for a one-half interest in a greater Big 24 basketball powerhouse and maintaining half of these six ACC’s football rights and only paying one-half for such.

Why would FOX do this? That is easy to see. Cost efficient acquisitions of basketball and football content. A no brainer. Owning one-half of a Big 24 would be a wise investment and would provide abundant basketball and football content for FOX.

Why would the Big 12 want to do this? The answers are obvious. Yormark wants to maximize his conference’s basketball brand and provide long-term stability to the Big 12. Adding Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and Wake Forest provides 5 valuable basketball properties, three of which are elite, plus the Boston market. UCONN and Arizona will almost certainly be invited as well to obtain two more basketball bluebloods.

With the northeastern basketball powers UCONN and Syracuse, along with Kansas, Duke, Arizona and the rest of the conference’s excellent basketball schools, the Big 12 could also schedule long-term inter-conference games or tournaments with the Big East Conference to maximize the Big 12’s value in the lucrative, but still undervalued, northeastern basketball markets.

Most importantly for the Big 12 schools, including all of the new member schools, they would have the security of not being left behind by a Power 2 breakaway. It would be very unlikely for the SEC and the B1G to be able to breakaway when more than half of the best basketball schools are in the Big 12, especially if the Big 12 develops contractual ties to the Big East Conference to further leverage that strength. As long as the Big 12’s football schools remain competitive on the gridiron, the Big 12’s basketball power will help keep the Big 24 in the Power club. Additional discussions as to why the ACC 6 would want to join the Big 12 follows below.

Why would the SEC do this? Money, more specifically, playoff money. A SEC 24 with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson and 13 other SEC schools likely gets five teams in a 12 team playoff. That would be a lot of money. Additionally, the SEC has a pro rata clause with ESPN that allows them to add P5 schools and have them get an equal share. Because both the SEC and ACC schools are ESPN properties these acquisitions would be seamless as long as the rest of the ACC is taken care of as well.

Of course if the SEC membership included every school that has won a college football national championship in the last generation, other than Ohio State and USC, such accumulation of elite college football powers markets itself. There would not be any way a SEC 24 would not clearly become the most valuable and powerful conference for the foreseeable future. A SEC 24 could provide 3 top tier conference matchups every week and ESPN has the ability to broadcast all of the SEC 24’s games across its many channels.

An interesting question will be which conference gets the ACC Network. If the network goes with the 6 ACC schools to the Big 12 you would be putting conference games on a network where FOX would own half of the conference schools’ media rights, while the network would be solely owned by ESPN and presumably the Big 12’ member schools. If the network goes with the schoold going to the SEC, ESPN would not have that issue.

Why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to go to the SEC: No real discussion needs to be made as to why the Magnificent Seven +1 would want to join the SEC. Their choice is to either stay in a dying conference or join the SEC and make tens of millions more. It is a no brainer.

Why the ACC 6 schools let the Magnificent Seven +1 go to the greener grasses of the SEC without them: There would certainly be significant reticence by the AAC 6 in their giving up the remaining 12 years of the ACC’s GORs term with their current ACC brothers. Duke and the other five ACC schools would certainly prefer to continue to be in the same conference as North Carolina and the other seven ACC schools, no question about it, but every ACC school sees what is happening to the PAC 12.

Watching the PAC 12 fall apart has to make the impending ACC 2036 disintegration more real and threatening. For these schools future security must be obtained at all costs. If that can be obtained without loosing money, and perhaps maybe make a little more, while having the chance to maintain and even elevate their basketball brands, which is the sport of strength and national identity for most of these schools, such choice must be made.

Furthermore, the Big 24 would be a really nice neighborhood for the ACC 6. A northeastern grouping of Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Louisville, Duke and Wake Forest, with West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCONN, and you have something special and valuable. Throw in the rich recruiting grounds and media markets around UCF (and possibly later USF) and that is some good gravy. When you include the rest of the Big 12 basketball powers like Kansas, Arizona (probably), Baylor, etc., plus a likely long-term agreement with the Big East Conference based on Yormark’s desire to further monetize basketball, especially in the northeast, objectively this could be the best thing for the ACC 6 basketball programs and their athletic departments generally.

As to the ACC 6 to Big 24 football programs, if North Carolina and Virginia schools are still able to continue to play each other, are the ACC 6 in the Big 24 really that much worse off not getting to play FSU, Miami and Clemson? Not when you consider the reality that they are presently trapped inside a sinking ship and this could be the only chance at getting inside a life boat. Continuing to play the rest of the current ACC schools for 12 more short years, and then falling into a deep oceanic abyss, cannot be better than joining a conference comprised of similar sized schools where you would likely be more competitive in football and possibly an easier path to make the playoff.

Notwithstanding all the above, the ACC likely has no choice because the ACC Magnificent Seven +1 could vote to dissolve the conference, and then not every ACC school finds a home, which likely will be the unfortunate fate of a couple of PAC 12 schools. No school wants that. Not now or in the future.

As to which school would get the 8th golden ticket to the SEC, the Irish would be a long shot, but the spot will be offered just in case they want to take it. You have to try if you are the SEC even if the chance is remote.

However, Georgia Tech probably gets the 8th spot because of the value of their football, due to their history playing current SEC schools and their being located in Atlanta. The SEC cannot let the B1G into Atlanta. So despite the last 30 years of football under-achievement, and serious issues with their fan interest, the Yellow Jackets get the 8th golden ticket. Benchmarks must be set but Georgia Tech is the smartest choice for the SEC

Because football drives the bus, Duke probably does not get a SEC invite despite their enormous basketball brand, rivalry with the Tar Heels and the rest of the Magnificent Seven and their elite academics. Duke football just is not top tier and Georgia Tech’s football ceiling is much higher as to potential competitiveness and football market value.

Because ESPN owns Duke’s media rights they will join the rest of the ACC 6 schools in their new conference home, the Big 24. For reasons discussed above, these six schools will be in a very nice conference that provides long-term financial security, new rivalries and elite basketball competition.

As touched on above, ESPN could also broker the continuation of certain important historically rivals, such as Duke and Wake Forest continuing to play UNC, NCST and Virginia. The same could be done with the Big 12 Texas schools and some of the other current Big 12 schools, playing Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. Ditto for Kentucky and Louisville.

As for Notre Dame, they will have the opportunity to remain independent in football and will either park its other sports in the Big East or the Big 24, or Notre Dame could decide to join the B1G or the SEC 24. I do not see the splitting of ACC into two being a primary reason Notre Dame relinquishing independence.

However, I do believe Notre Dame’s days of football independence are numbered because of the College Football Playoff, not because of a lack of access to it, but because of such access. It is only a matter of time, whether sooner or later, that Notre Dame’s financial advantage becomes apparent if the Irish makes the playoffs several years in a row and pockets all that playoff money without having to share with a conference. Such would likely be much larger than any other school’s net share because of conference affiliations. While the potential dollars the Irish could earn in the playoffs could be restricted, such discussions would likely cause Notre Dame to concede football independence, very reluctantly, and they will probably join the B1G.

What would the B1G do if the SEC and the Big 12 both go to 24 schools? They would react. Oregon and Washington would be the easiest choices, and they may be taken within days, long before the ACC is split in half. They could then stop at 18 until the next media rights cycle. They could also go to 20 with Stanford and California, but these two schools have to get on board with being in it to win it. More emphasis needs to be put into building a culture of sports competitiveness in football and basketball, as well as cultivating an enhanced fan support base for these sports, at Stanford and especially at California. The B1G should create benchmarks for school support for California and Stanford football and basketball before granting an invite. Such would be wise in my opinion.

After adding Oregon and Washington, and maybe California and Stanford, the B1G likely holds at 20 for awhile, and when they are ready they could take any four schools from the Big 24 they would want. Or the B1G could grab up to eight schools right now if they are be so inclined, including taking Colorado before they can unpack their bags from their move to the Big 12. The point is they can grab any PAC 12 or Big 12 school they want, now or later.

The problem the B1G has, other than being shut out of the market for ACC schools for about a decade, is their financial success. The B1G media rights contracts supposedly do not include a pro rate clause like the SEC and Big 12, and there are not any schools out there that raises the per school average that the current B1G members makes from it current media rights deals. Maybe Oregon and Washington brings in a little extra value, but no other schools move the needle financially.

No other school except Notre Dame that is. If the B1G gets the Irish, then Oregon, Washington, and Stanford makes sense, and if the B1G wanted to match the SEC at 24, California plus three other schools could even happen. Whether these schools come from solely the PAC or also from the Big 24 does not really matter, either now or later.

If the B1G were to ever raid the Big 24, it would just reload again, and I predict such additions would be San Diego (rich recruiting grounds, market and basketball), Memphis (proximity, fertile recruiting grounds and basketball) and South Florida (rich recruiting grounds, travel partner for UCF and great academics). If a fourth school is needed it probably would be Fresno State (recruiting grounds, another California market and a decent fan base).

We are living in interesting times.

Lurker Above

Definitely a detailed analysis and while I agree with superconferences as the future, I have a few comments:
1) Duke will not be left behind while VT prospers. That's just not happening unless it's Dukes choice in the matter. They are going to be playing football vs Baylor instead of UNC and UVA. So either they are #8 or VT will join it's old Big East chums.
2) Assuming ND is still allowed to play games, it would just park it's other sports in Big 10 not Big 12. Big East most likely though.

While I would not totally be surprised if Duke got the 8th invite, the truth is VT is worth more than Duke in realignment. I know it's hard to believe because Duke is such an enormous nation basketball brand, the Duke-UNC rivalry is so wonderful and Duke has such great academics, but football is just that more valuable than basketball.

I seriously doubt any conference would allow Notre Dame to park its non-football sports in their conference other than the Big East or maybe the Big 12.

08-02-2023, 09:49 AM

(07-30-2023 07:44 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:07 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]Why would ESPN do this? It is important to remember that the media rights for all 15 ACC schools are ESPN properties through 2036, except for all of Notre Dame's football games above the 5 conference ACC games per year, as well as any sports the 15 members currently play outside the ACC because such sports are not supported by the conference.
For this reason the B1G will be excluded from acquiring any ACC schools. There is no way the Mouse lets any of its valuable ACC properties freely go the B1G.

Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

You really do not think ESPN would earn significantly more that $200 million more per year if they were to add the Magnificent Seven plus one other ACC school? Seriously?

I do not. Certainly not net above what they were getting from their ACC contract, which just turned into a Pac 129-like dumpster fire if the top brands depart. They would only get a marginal increase in the overall SEC contract value, likely not enough to justify the pro rata for even 4 teams, much less 8.

08-02-2023, 10:04 AM

The B1G only wants UNC and VA out of the ACC.

And they would take Stanford as the +1 if Notre Dame came in.

I think it is setting up for the ACC to become the #4 conference after the B12 at #3

08-02-2023, 10:14 AM

(08-02-2023 09:49 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:44 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

You really do not think ESPN would earn significantly more that $200 million more per year if they were to add the Magnificent Seven plus one other ACC school? Seriously?

I do not. Certainly not net above what they were getting from their ACC contract, which just turned into a Pac 129-like dumpster fire if the top brands depart. They would only get a marginal increase in the overall SEC contract value, likely not enough to justify the pro rata for even 4 teams, much less 8.

The SEC media deal contains a pro rata clause. The SEC would not make or loose money on its current media rights deal. This is about establishing a monopoly in the greater southeast in a sport that is still greatly undervalued as to where it will be soon. Think the SEC becoming 20% of the NFL's value. Now imagine a competitor taking some of what should be among the SEC's most valuable properties located on within its most valuable real estate when such could be prevented.

08-02-2023, 10:19 AM

Today's basketball powers are irrelevant.

The P2 will use their money advantage and NIL to dominate basketball as well. It will just take a little time.

08-02-2023, 10:22 AM

08-02-2023, 10:41 AM

(08-02-2023 10:22 AM)CintiFan Wrote: [ -> ]One fallacy in your argument is the assumption that ESPN has the power to dictate that ACC schools join the SEC. In reality, the schools themselves will choose and some will have offers from both the SEC and B1G. The B1G will get a few of them.

That is incorrect. ESPN has tremendous leverage over all ACC schools except ND, and it still has a lot of influence over the Irish. Enough to parlay that into keeping some of the Irish’s home games or some broadcast rights of any new B1G additions if ND is part of that.

ESPN owns the ACC's media rights through 2036. Please do respond by saying the ACC owns the rights. That's silly. The ACC sold them to ESPN for hundreds of millions of dollars. Nobody pays that much money and not aquire those rights. Can I prove it? No, because ESPN contracts are not published, but we do know the ACC's GORs expressly states such contract was being done contemporaneously with the ACC/ESPN media rights deal. You really think ESPN’s lawyers are allowing ESPN to pay any conference hundreds of millions and not secure such conference’s media rights throughout the length of the contract? That's absurd.

08-02-2023, 11:29 AM

(08-02-2023 10:19 AM)Claw Wrote: [ -> ]Today's basketball powers are irrelevant.

The P2 will use their money advantage and NIL to dominate basketball as well. It will just take a little time.

The blue 5 will continue to be the top basketball schools-UCLA, UK, KU, Duke and UNC. And nobody will outbid them on basketball players anyway.

08-02-2023, 11:46 AM

(08-02-2023 09:49 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:44 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 06:20 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]Why, indeed would ESPN pay a crapton more money for a collection of schools that can't break 3.5m viewers for their CCG 2 years in row? Hint: they won't. They won't even pay the SEC an extra dime for highly desirable extra content in the form of a 9th SEC game. Perhaps things will change in a couple years, but for now ESPN isn't paying any more than necessary to get the content they want.

a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

You really do not think ESPN would earn significantly more that $200 million more per year if they were to add the Magnificent Seven plus one other ACC school? Seriously?

I do not. Certainly not net above what they were getting from their ACC contract, which just turned into a Pac 129-like dumpster fire if the top brands depart. They would only get a marginal increase in the overall SEC contract value, likely not enough to justify the pro rata for even 4 teams, much less 8.

Bryan, my friend, you are forgetting about the CFP expansion. That is where the $$'s will be coming from, IMO.

08-02-2023, 08:29 PM

(08-02-2023 11:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2023 09:49 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:44 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-30-2023 07:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]a. As i stated ib my post, ESPN would payc it because they would have to pay it because of the pro rata clause in the SEC/ESPN contract.

b. They would want to pay it. Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and North Carolina would generate significantly more viewership than when they played the other ACC schools whenever any of them played any of the SEC's top dozen brands. ESPN is in the business of buying great content and monetizing it for profit. That is their business. It is what they do.

No one watches the ACC Conference Championship because no one cares about the ACC, even its members' fans, but that has nothing to do with interest in the SEC. As you know from the Aggies joining the SEC, it just means more here. It meant more to the Texas Aggie fans, Mizzou Tiger's fans, South Carolina's fans, Arkansas' fans, and when other SEC schools play them, it just mean more to the rest if the SEC fans and college football fans everywhere. TV ratings would not be a problem with these additions

The SEC already has a ton of Big Games every single weekend though. If we raid 4/6/8 ACC schools, all that does is devalue that ~ $40m ACC contract without producing much new content. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a #4 Alabama vs #9 A&M is just as big in the ratings as a #4 Alabama vs #9 FSU, so what's the rush for ESPN. There will only be so many ranked teams every season, if Clemson/FSU etc come in like gangbusters they'll knock Tennessee, OU, etc etc down lower and thus hurt their ratings, and if they come in and stumble then the Big Programs in the SEC won't be ranked any higher or have any higher ratings they would have in the 16 team SEC. ESPN might not even be willing to pay us enough to add anybody in 2034, not because nobody is worth it in a vacuum, but rather because one or 2 more Big Brands to go with the 10 we already have just doesn't move the needle as much as a few Big Brands move the needle for the ACC, Big 12, or both. I'm not saying that's certain, but the whole situation is uncertain enough that, in this current highly dangerous and choppy market, ESPN is not going to take any unnecessary risks. It's just like Conferences when they're looking at new members, if there's uncertainty then the default setting is the status quo. In this case, there's uncertainty about what would be best for ESPN, and that will make them default to "let's see what happens in 2036" instead of "Let's pay an extra $200m a year to current ACC schools just b/c we like giving away free money".

You really do not think ESPN would earn significantly more that $200 million more per year if they were to add the Magnificent Seven plus one other ACC school? Seriously?

I do not. Certainly not net above what they were getting from their ACC contract, which just turned into a Pac 129-like dumpster fire if the top brands depart. They would only get a marginal increase in the overall SEC contract value, likely not enough to justify the pro rata for even 4 teams, much less 8.

Bryan, my friend, you are forgetting about the CFP expansion. That is where the $$'s will be coming from, IMO.

Yes, the 12 team College Playoff will be huge. It will also grow in value and size over the years to come. I could even see the SEC getting somewhere near half of its media revenue from the CFP.

08-03-2023, 07:50 AM

(08-02-2023 10:41 AM)Lurker Above Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2023 10:22 AM)CintiFan Wrote: [ -> ]One fallacy in your argument is the assumption that ESPN has the power to dictate that ACC schools join the SEC. In reality, the schools themselves will choose and some will have offers from both the SEC and B1G. The B1G will get a few of them.

That is incorrect. ESPN has tremendous leverage over all ACC schools except ND, and it still has a lot of influence over the Irish. Enough to parlay that into keeping some of the Irish’s home games or some broadcast rights of any new B1G additions if ND is part of that.

ESPN owns the ACC's media rights through 2036. Please do respond by saying the ACC owns the rights. That's silly. The ACC sold them to ESPN for hundreds of millions of dollars. Nobody pays that much money and not aquire those rights. Can I prove it? No, because ESPN contracts are not published, but we do know the ACC's GORs expressly states such contract was being done contemporaneously with the ACC/ESPN media rights deal. You really think ESPN’s lawyers are allowing ESPN to pay any conference hundreds of millions and not secure such conference’s media rights throughout the length of the contract? That's absurd.

ESPN has zero control over ND home football games. None at all.

Jt currently only has control of two ND away games versus ACC teams one year, three away ACC games the next.

Now, if you are talking basketball or soccer or lacrosse, sure.